Software
Enterprise subscription software
Established technology can produce a fresh re-rating. An early technology can already be expensive.
WHAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING
Salesforce reported $11.345 billion Q2 FY2027 revenue, including $10.820 billion subscriptions and support. Microsoft reported 14% growth in Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue. Existing software economics are substantial while AI changes pricing and seat demand.
Adoption view 22 Oct 2026 · review due 21 Nov 2026
Where could value be captured?
Do agents expand paid outcomes or replace profitable licences?
THE BEGINNING
What would open the window?
Require retained customers, organic revenue and cash generation to support a conservative valuation after AI serving costs and dilution.
THE END
What would end the move?
Review if paid seats or retention erode, AI revenue replaces rather than adds to subscriptions, or expectations exceed demonstrated customer value.
What would support staying with the thesis?
Look for further independent evidence, delivered customer economics and price behaviour consistent with the original thesis.
What would invalidate it?
Acquisitions and reclassified products can flatter growth. Lower switching costs and AI substitution may weaken incumbent pricing.
THE COUNTERCASE
Acquisitions and reclassified products can flatter growth. Lower switching costs and AI substitution may weaken incumbent pricing.
What is still missing before an investment decision?
- A defined investable instrument or comparable cohort and exposure materiality
- A dated narrative change supported by independently attributed evidence
- A permitted price, liquidity and capital-flow observation for the same instrument
- Valuation scenarios showing what success is already assumed in the price
- A prospective horizon, continuation test and predeclared invalidation
- An independent investment-case review
The adoption evidence
Original sources, with dates- Salesforce fiscal Q2 2027 results ↗26 Aug 2026
- Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings, year ended June 2026 ↗29 Jul 2026
BASELINE, NOT AN ACTIVE INVESTMENT CASE
This market is in the broader universe. The adoption baseline does not establish a current investment opportunity.