◉Tech Investing RadarBY MARC WINN
← Historical patterns

SIMILAR CONDITIONS. DIFFERENT OUTCOMES.

Compare the pattern.
Keep the differences.

Find the shared questions across two episodes, then inspect the evidence that makes each one different.

SHARED RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

1 shared pattern feature

A product becomes a platform

These labels describe retrospective research hypotheses. They are not a similarity probability, forecast or evidence that either case predicts the other.

Important differences

  • The documented business outcomes differ; business progress must be assessed separately from shareholder return.
  • The episodes use different time horizons and cannot establish the same investment window.
  • The episodes occurred in different calendar periods; market conditions are not controlled for.
  • These are episodes of the same company, not independent company-level observations.

Missing evidence

  • Apple: no verified price series for this episode.
  • Apple: no comparable measured historical sentiment series.

AAPL · 2008–2008

Apple: the device gains a developer ecosystem

Documentary candidate
Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.

Prior belief

Hypothesis: the iPhone was primarily a tightly integrated device.

New possibility

Hypothesis: third-party applications could expand its utility and ecosystem.

Alternative explanations

  • Launch enthusiasm
  • Free downloads without durable usage or revenue

Evidence gaps

  • Selected retrospectively, rather than discovered by a predeclared stock-universe screen.
  • Belief labels are interpretations, not a measured sentiment series or evidence of market consensus.
  • Daily adjusted prices, liquidity, transaction costs and exact entry or exit boundaries are not verified.
  • Related episodes can overlap and are not independent statistical observations.
Inspect the full dated evidence →

AAPL · 2007–2007

Apple: a new category becomes tangible

Documentary candidate
Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.

Prior belief

Hypothesis: a computer and music-device company entering an unfamiliar phone market.

New possibility

Hypothesis: a new mobile-computing category was possible.

Alternative explanations

  • Existing Mac and iPod business performance
  • General market conditions

Evidence gaps

  • Selected retrospectively, rather than discovered by a predeclared stock-universe screen.
  • Belief labels are interpretations, not a measured sentiment series or evidence of market consensus.
  • Daily adjusted prices, liquidity, transaction costs and exact entry or exit boundaries are not verified.
  • Related episodes can overlap and are not independent statistical observations.
Inspect the full dated evidence →

Belief descriptions are reconstructed unless the case explicitly identifies contemporary sentiment evidence. Annual charts may cover different dates and use different benchmarks. They must not be read as matched trade results.