◉Tech Investing RadarBY MARC WINN

THE RADAR’S HISTORICAL MEMORY

How belief changes.
How value moves.

Explore the evidence behind technology stock rises, pauses and resets. Compare the conditions, then ask what could be different this time.

Explore the episodes ↓Compare two cases ↗
Follow three separate questions.What changed in the business?What changed in people’s expectations?What did shareholders experience?

Business disclosures are evidence about the company. They do not, by themselves, measure market sentiment.

EXPLORE THE LIBRARY

Different companies.
Recognisable questions.

Read the original Tesla overview ↗
Clear filters

Showing 20 of 20 selected episodes. Sources and evidence gaps remain visible in every case.

NVDA · 2023–2024Verified rise

NVIDIA: generative AI changes the scale of demand

A large revenue outlook revision was followed by reported data-centre acceleration and a higher annual shareholder endpoint.

Annual context 2020–2025Episode 2023–2024 shaded
An external event changes demandAdoption acceleratesA product becomes a platformThe economics improve
Original sources checkedExplore the case
AMD · 2015–2016Verified rise

AMD: a technical comeback becomes testable

Zen demonstrations accompanied a sharp increase in the annual shareholder endpoint before full-year profitability.

Annual context 2014–2019Episode 2015–2016 shaded
Technical promise becomes testableFrom survival doubt to a viable business
Original sources checkedExplore the case
ZM · 2020–2021Documentary candidate

Zoom: growth continues while its pace changes

A second documentary episode tests the distinction between a growing business and an exhausted growth expectation.

Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.
Expectations outrun supportAn external event changes demand
Original sources checkedExplore the case
AAPL · 2007–2007Documentary candidate

Apple: a new category becomes tangible

The original iPhone announcement is a product-catalyst case awaiting historical price and expectations reconstruction.

Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.
Technical promise becomes testableA product becomes a platform
Original sources checkedExplore the case
AAPL · 2008–2008Documentary candidate

Apple: the device gains a developer ecosystem

The App Store launch and early downloads form a distinct platform-recognition hypothesis.

Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.
A product becomes a platformAdoption accelerates
Original sources checkedExplore the case
MSFT · 2014–2018Documentary candidate

Microsoft: an incumbent builds a cloud growth engine

Multiple years of cloud scale provide a transformation case that must later be split into specific recognition windows.

Annual context 2015–2020Episode 2014–2018 shaded
A product becomes a platformAdoption acceleratesThe economics improve
Original sources checkedExplore the case
NFLX · 2013–2014Documentary candidate

Netflix: streaming growth and loss reduction

A partially reconstructed transition case, with later commercial confirmation and an explicit early-evidence gap.

Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.
Adoption acceleratesThe economics improveA product becomes a platform
Evidence being assembledExplore the case

HOW THE LIBRARY LEARNS

Keep the evidence.
Test the resemblance.

One record describes one company during one episode. A business can have several very different rises, pauses and resets.

Inspect the radar’s research quality ↗
01

Rebuild what was knowable

Event dates and publication dates stay separate. Later results can explain an outcome, but cannot become an earlier signal.

02

Keep the failed lookalikes

Resets and failures challenge the same hypotheses. These selected comparisons are not yet a statistically matched control group.

03

Test new cases as they arrive

Define a rule before evaluating it on unseen periods, then preserve a prospective record. Historical resemblance has not yet established predictive performance.

04

Separate the time scales

Annual data shows the scale of a move. Daily or weekly evidence is still needed to investigate the radar’s two-to-eight-week investment windows.

PATTERN HYPOTHESES

What might repeat?

These are questions to investigate, not proven causes of returns or a sequence every stock follows.

From survival doubt to a viable business

Evidence challenges a specific financing, production or profitability doubt.

Evidence to look for

  • Cash-flow improvement
  • Repeatable operating milestones
  • Financing runway

What could contradict it

  • One-off accounting gains
  • Dependence on repeated emergency funding
Adoption accelerates

Usage, paid customers or repeat orders grow faster than the previous expectation.

Evidence to look for

  • Repeat demand
  • Customer growth
  • Retention

What could contradict it

  • Promotional or free usage only
  • Demand pulled forward from later periods
The economics improve

Margins, cash generation or unit economics improve beyond a volume-only story.

Evidence to look for

  • Better mix or margins
  • Cash conversion
  • Operating leverage

What could contradict it

  • Unallocated costs
  • Accounting changes
  • Temporary price benefits
A product becomes a platform

Evidence supports a broader business model, ecosystem or profit pool than previously visible.

Evidence to look for

  • New economic disclosure
  • Developer or customer ecosystem
  • Multiple revenue paths

What could contradict it

  • Attractive usage without value capture
  • Competition removes the economics
Capital access changes

Index inclusion, financing or balance-sheet changes alter participation or survival conditions.

Evidence to look for

  • Index eligibility
  • Financing completion
  • Longer runway

What could contradict it

  • Dilution overwhelms shareholder benefit
  • Flows reverse
  • Funding terms become restrictive
Expectations outrun support

A successful technology or company no longer supports the expectations embedded in its price.

Evidence to look for

  • Demand deceleration
  • Inventory accumulation
  • Price and operating evidence diverge

What could contradict it

  • New evidence expands the plausible profit pool
  • A reset is only market-wide volatility
Technical promise becomes testable

A demonstration, deployment or independently repeatable result reduces a specific technical uncertainty.

Evidence to look for

  • Reproducible performance
  • Shipping product
  • Customer deployment

What could contradict it

  • Selected demos only
  • Performance without cost or reliability evidence
An external event changes demand

A policy, supply, competitive or social shock changes adoption more quickly than an ordinary product cycle.

Evidence to look for

  • Order or usage step change
  • Material outlook revision
  • Cross-customer confirmation

What could contradict it

  • Temporary emergency use
  • Reopening or policy reversal
  • Unsustainable capacity commitments