◉Tech Investing RadarBY MARC WINN
← Historical patterns

SIMILAR CONDITIONS. DIFFERENT OUTCOMES.

Compare the pattern.
Keep the differences.

Find the shared questions across two episodes, then inspect the evidence that makes each one different.

SHARED RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

1 shared pattern feature

Adoption accelerates

These labels describe retrospective research hypotheses. They are not a similarity probability, forecast or evidence that either case predicts the other.

Important differences

  • The documented business outcomes differ; business progress must be assessed separately from shareholder return.
  • The episodes use different time horizons and cannot establish the same investment window.
  • These are episodes of the same company, not independent company-level observations.

Missing evidence

  • Apple: no verified price series for this episode.
  • Apple: no comparable measured historical sentiment series.

AAPL · 2008–2010

Apple: mobile adoption becomes substantial business scale

Documentary candidate
Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.

Prior belief

Hypothesis: early excitement and ecosystem usage still needed broad device adoption.

New possibility

Hypothesis: iPhone could become a major commercial growth platform.

Alternative explanations

  • Other Apple products
  • Recovery after the financial crisis
  • Revenue-recognition changes

Evidence gaps

  • Selected retrospectively, rather than discovered by a predeclared stock-universe screen.
  • Belief labels are interpretations, not a measured sentiment series or evidence of market consensus.
  • Daily adjusted prices, liquidity, transaction costs and exact entry or exit boundaries are not verified.
  • Related episodes can overlap and are not independent statistical observations.
Inspect the full dated evidence →

AAPL · 2008–2008

Apple: the device gains a developer ecosystem

Documentary candidate
Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.

Prior belief

Hypothesis: the iPhone was primarily a tightly integrated device.

New possibility

Hypothesis: third-party applications could expand its utility and ecosystem.

Alternative explanations

  • Launch enthusiasm
  • Free downloads without durable usage or revenue

Evidence gaps

  • Selected retrospectively, rather than discovered by a predeclared stock-universe screen.
  • Belief labels are interpretations, not a measured sentiment series or evidence of market consensus.
  • Daily adjusted prices, liquidity, transaction costs and exact entry or exit boundaries are not verified.
  • Related episodes can overlap and are not independent statistical observations.
Inspect the full dated evidence →

Belief descriptions are reconstructed unless the case explicitly identifies contemporary sentiment evidence. Annual charts may cover different dates and use different benchmarks. They must not be read as matched trade results.