◉Tech Investing RadarBY MARC WINN
← Historical patterns

SIMILAR CONDITIONS. DIFFERENT OUTCOMES.

Compare the pattern.
Keep the differences.

Find the shared questions across two episodes, then inspect the evidence that makes each one different.

SHARED RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

1 shared pattern feature

Adoption accelerates

These labels describe retrospective research hypotheses. They are not a similarity probability, forecast or evidence that either case predicts the other.

Important differences

  • Different recorded outcomes: Microsoft (research candidate) and Tesla (sustained rise).
  • The documented business outcomes differ; business progress must be assessed separately from shareholder return.
  • The episodes occurred in different calendar periods; market conditions are not controlled for.

Missing evidence

  • Microsoft: annual endpoints do not resolve a two-to-eight-week investment window.
  • Microsoft: no comparable measured historical sentiment series.
  • Tesla: annual endpoints do not resolve a two-to-eight-week investment window.
  • Tesla: no comparable measured historical sentiment series.

MSFT · 2014–2018

Microsoft: an incumbent builds a cloud growth engine

Documentary candidate
Annual context 2015–2020Episode 2014–2018 shaded

Prior belief

Hypothesis: mature licence businesses dominated future prospects.

New possibility

Hypothesis: cloud and subscriptions could sustain renewed growth.

Alternative explanations

  • Other Microsoft businesses
  • Currency, tax and acquisitions
  • Changes in reporting definitions

Evidence gaps

  • Selected retrospectively, rather than discovered by a predeclared stock-universe screen.
  • Belief labels are interpretations, not a measured sentiment series or evidence of market consensus.
  • Daily adjusted prices, liquidity, transaction costs and exact entry or exit boundaries are not verified.
  • Related episodes can overlap and are not independent statistical observations.
  • Annualised run rate and quarterly recognised revenue are different metrics; this case does not calculate a cross-year growth rate between them.
Inspect the full dated evidence →

TSLA · 2019–2021

Tesla: viability and scaling become investable possibilities

Verified rise
Annual context 2019–2024Episode 2019–2021 shaded

Prior belief

Hypothesis: production, cash generation and long-term survival remained open questions.

New possibility

Hypothesis: a scalable electric-vehicle business and wider future opportunities became more credible.

Alternative explanations

  • Broad liquidity conditions
  • Index flows
  • Expectations beyond automotive earnings

Evidence gaps

  • Selected retrospectively, rather than discovered by a predeclared stock-universe screen.
  • Belief labels are interpretations, not a measured sentiment series or evidence of market consensus.
  • Daily adjusted prices, liquidity, transaction costs and exact entry or exit boundaries are not verified.
  • Related episodes can overlap and are not independent statistical observations.
  • The early SEC notices are source-checked publication routes; the attached operating updates need fuller extraction. The annual chart begins after the October 2019 checkpoint.
Inspect the full dated evidence →

Belief descriptions are reconstructed unless the case explicitly identifies contemporary sentiment evidence. Annual charts may cover different dates and use different benchmarks. They must not be read as matched trade results.