◉Tech Investing RadarBY MARC WINN
← Historical patterns

SIMILAR CONDITIONS. DIFFERENT OUTCOMES.

Compare the pattern.
Keep the differences.

Find the shared questions across two episodes, then inspect the evidence that makes each one different.

SHARED RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

1 shared pattern feature

An external event changes demand

These labels describe retrospective research hypotheses. They are not a similarity probability, forecast or evidence that either case predicts the other.

Important differences

  • The documented business outcomes differ; business progress must be assessed separately from shareholder return.
  • The episodes use different time horizons and cannot establish the same investment window.
  • These are episodes of the same company, not independent company-level observations.

Missing evidence

  • Zoom: no verified price series for this episode.
  • Zoom: no comparable measured historical sentiment series.

ZM · 2020–2020

Zoom: an external shock transforms the demand outlook

Documentary candidate
Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.

Prior belief

Hypothesis: a fast-growing enterprise-video service.

New possibility

Hypothesis: essential infrastructure for working and learning remotely.

Alternative explanations

  • Emergency demand pulled forward from later years
  • Free usage versus paid customer economics

Evidence gaps

  • Selected retrospectively, rather than discovered by a predeclared stock-universe screen.
  • Belief labels are interpretations, not a measured sentiment series or evidence of market consensus.
  • Daily adjusted prices, liquidity, transaction costs and exact entry or exit boundaries are not verified.
  • Related episodes can overlap and are not independent statistical observations.
Inspect the full dated evidence →

ZM · 2020–2021

Zoom: growth continues while its pace changes

Documentary candidate
Price window not yet verifiedDated business evidence is available below.

Prior belief

Hypothesis: pandemic growth might set a durable new trajectory.

New possibility

Hypothesis: future growth needed to normalise as the comparison base expanded.

Alternative explanations

  • Reopening conditions
  • High comparison base
  • Product and enterprise mix changes

Evidence gaps

  • Selected retrospectively, rather than discovered by a predeclared stock-universe screen.
  • Belief labels are interpretations, not a measured sentiment series or evidence of market consensus.
  • Daily adjusted prices, liquidity, transaction costs and exact entry or exit boundaries are not verified.
  • Related episodes can overlap and are not independent statistical observations.
Inspect the full dated evidence →

Belief descriptions are reconstructed unless the case explicitly identifies contemporary sentiment evidence. Annual charts may cover different dates and use different benchmarks. They must not be read as matched trade results.