NVIDIA · NVDA · 29 Jan 2023 TO 28 Jan 2024
A large revenue outlook revision was followed by reported data-centre acceleration and a higher annual shareholder endpoint.
Retrospective case study. These were not calls made by this platform. Source checking is not strategy validation.
The change being investigated
Retrospective interpretation. Contemporary sentiment evidence is incomplete. These descriptions are reconstructed research hypotheses, not measured market consensus.
THE SHAREHOLDER EXPERIENCE
Annual endpoints, with straight joins between observations. This context may extend beyond the selected episode.
The shaded area marks the selected episode within the full disclosed history. Annual endpoints cannot identify precise entry prices, exit prices or maximum drawdowns. A broad market or industry benchmark is context, not a risk-matched control.
| Observation date | NVDA | S&P 500 total return |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2020 | 100 | 100 |
| 31 Jan 2021 | 207.79 | 114.79 |
| 30 Jan 2022 | 365.66 | 138.9 |
| 29 Jan 2023 | 326.34 | 129.69 |
| 28 Jan 2024 | 978.42 | 158.39 |
| 26 Jan 2025 | 2,287.06 | 200.32 |
Basis: Issuer-reported value of $100 invested on 26 January 2020 with dividends reinvested; FactSet source. Fiscal-year endpoints only, published after these episodes.
NVIDIA fiscal 2025 Form 10-K, Stock Performance Graphs ↗Published 26 Feb 2025. Later disclosures are outcome evidence, not earlier signals.
THE DATED EVIDENCE
Publication time determines when a source can support a historical signal. Reporting periods and later explanations stay separate.
sec filing · business evidence
Observed: Quarterly revenue was $6.05 billion, down 21% year on year; fiscal-year revenue was approximately flat.
Interpretation: A useful cyclical baseline before the later AI acceleration, rather than a hindsight assumption of uninterrupted growth.
Read the original source ↗issuer release · business evidence
Observed: Revenue was $7.19 billion; data-centre revenue was $4.28 billion; next-quarter revenue guidance was $11 billion.
Interpretation: A large expected business expansion became visible. To measure a surprise, compare this disclosure with archived expectations, not hindsight.
Read the original source ↗issuer release · business evidence
Observed: Revenue reached $13.51 billion and data-centre revenue $10.32 billion.
Interpretation: Subsequent reported demand supported the earlier outlook; it does not identify an optimal purchase date.
Read the original source ↗CHALLENGE THE STORY
TEST THE NEXT RESEMBLANCE
Business acceleration and the annual shareholder rise are documented; surprise magnitude against market consensus remains unmeasured.