NVIDIA · NVDA · 30 Jan 2022 TO 29 Jan 2023
Record trailing results preceded a weaker annual shareholder endpoint and later revenue stagnation.
Retrospective case study. These were not calls made by this platform. Source checking is not strategy validation.
The change being investigated
Retrospective interpretation. Contemporary sentiment evidence is incomplete. These descriptions are reconstructed research hypotheses, not measured market consensus.
THE SHAREHOLDER EXPERIENCE
Annual endpoints, with straight joins between observations. This context may extend beyond the selected episode.
The shaded area marks the selected episode within the full disclosed history. Annual endpoints cannot identify precise entry prices, exit prices or maximum drawdowns. A broad market or industry benchmark is context, not a risk-matched control.
| Observation date | NVDA | S&P 500 total return |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2020 | 100 | 100 |
| 31 Jan 2021 | 207.79 | 114.79 |
| 30 Jan 2022 | 365.66 | 138.9 |
| 29 Jan 2023 | 326.34 | 129.69 |
| 28 Jan 2024 | 978.42 | 158.39 |
| 26 Jan 2025 | 2,287.06 | 200.32 |
Basis: Issuer-reported value of $100 invested on 26 January 2020 with dividends reinvested; FactSet source. Fiscal-year endpoints only, published after these episodes.
NVIDIA fiscal 2025 Form 10-K, Stock Performance Graphs ↗Published 26 Feb 2025. Later disclosures are outcome evidence, not earlier signals.
THE DATED EVIDENCE
Publication time determines when a source can support a historical signal. Reporting periods and later explanations stay separate.
sec filing · business evidence
Observed: Fiscal-year revenue reached $26.91 billion, up 61%; quarterly gaming and data-centre revenue were records.
Interpretation: Strong trailing results do not establish that the current share price leaves room for further gains.
Read the original source ↗sec filing · business evidence
Observed: Quarterly revenue was $6.05 billion, down 21% year on year; fiscal-year revenue was approximately flat.
Interpretation: A useful cyclical baseline before the later AI acceleration, rather than a hindsight assumption of uninterrupted growth.
Later outcome evidence. This source must not be used as a signal available before the episode ended.
Read the original source ↗CHALLENGE THE STORY
TEST THE NEXT RESEMBLANCE
The annual total-return endpoint fell; later results show flat full-year revenue.